Fuel loads and prediction: Who can stop Hamilton?

Who can beat Lewis Hamilton at Yas Marina?

Lewis Hamilton utterly dominated the first ever qualifying session in Abu Dhabi, and he looks like he is going to be very hard to stop in the race.

lewis hamilton f1 mclaren mercedes This is likely to be the last ever post qualifying fuel loads article due to the ban of re-fuelling next season. In 2010 all the cars will start with a full tank of fuel, which will have to last the entire race distance.

In qualifying in 2010 all three segments of qualifying will be on low fuel (as Q1 and Q2 currently are).

Focusing back on 2009 now, and the car weights have been announced, and here they are below.

1. Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 658.5
2. Vettel Red Bull-Renault 663.0
3. Webber Red Bull-Renault 660.0
4. Barrichello Brawn-Mercedes 655.0
5. Button Brawn-Mercedes 657.0
6. Trulli Toyota 661.0
7. Kubica BMW-Sauber 654.5
8. Heidfeld BMW-Sauber 664.0
9. Rosberg Williams-Toyota 665.0
10. Buemi Toro Rosso-Ferrari 661.5

11. Raikkonen Ferrari 692.0*
12. Kobayashi Toyota 694.3*
13. Kovalainen McLaren-Mercedes 697.0*
14. Nakajima Williams-Toyota 704.0*
15. Alguersuari Toro Rosso-Ferrari 696.5*
16. Alonso Renault 708.3*
17. Liuzzi Force India-Mercedes 695.0*
18. Sutil Force India-Mercedes 696.0*
19. Grosjean Renault 710.8*
20. Fisichella Ferrari 692.5*

Rubens Barrichello will be the first of the top five to visit the pits on lap 16/17. Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button look to be coming in on the next lap (17/18).

The Red Bull drivers are the heaviest of the runners at the sharp end. Sebastien Vettel should be coming in lap 19/20, 1 lap after team mate Mark Webber on lap 18/19.

Analysis and predictions

top 3 in abu dhabi gp qualifying The Red Bulls have the tactical advantage heading into the race with one or two laps more fuel than Hamilton, but that probably isn’t going to be enough for them to challenge him.

If the gap between Hamilton and the others in qualifying transfers to the race, then Hamilton will be in a different postcode by the time the first pit stops take place.

Even when you take into account the extra bit of fuel Red Bull were carrying in Q3 Hamilton was still much quicker.

abu dhabi garnd prix f1 news The McLaren has turned out to be much faster this weekend. The mixture of slow corners, and the two long straights are the ideal combination for McLaren. They can unleash the KERs, and their Mercedes engine on the two long straights.

This has perhaps been the best track for KERs all season long. Mclaren have gained 0.4 second per lap from it this weekend, as opposed to just 0.2 seconds in Brazil.

jarno trulli f1 panasonic toyota The car also has fantastic mechanical grip which is beneficial in the many slow corners on the circuit. It’s the middle sector in particular which includes the two long straights, where Hamilton was miles ahead of the opposition. The outgoing World Champ is also driving brilliantly, and with alot of confidence. His dominance so far has been very impressive.

As long as he doesn’t make any silly mistakes he should stroll to victory. Perhaps his only obstacle will be the start. It’s only a short run down to turn 1, and he can’t hit the KERs button till he reaches 100kph, so it won’t give him that much of an advantage at the start. So this gives Vettel an outside chance of getting ahead of Lewis at the start if he gets off the line really well.

kimi raikkonen f1 driver ferrari Unfortunately Heikki Kovalainen was struck by unreliability in Q2 so starts in an unlucky 13th place. Without the problem it could very easily have been a McLaren front row lock-out. However with the performance of the car this weekend, and KERs he is one to watch out for fighting through the field.

In all likelihood it will be Brawn and Red Bull fighting for second place. Brawn should be much stronger in the race than they were in qualifying. Throughout 2009 the BGP001 has performed better over a long race distance as opposed to a single lap, as the car is easy on its tyres.

jenson button f1 brawn gp They looked quick over the long runs in free practise so they should be a feature in the race. Button also suffered vibration problems during his Q3 run which suggests he could have qualified higher.

The day/night-time setting of this race could have an impact on this battle. At the start of the race in daylight the track temperature will be baking hot. However as darkness sets in the track temperature will drop by around 10-15 degrees.

abu dhabi garnd prix f1 news volunteers Brawn GP has been very fast on boiling hot tracks, but not so good in cooler conditions. So we could get the bizarre situation where Brawn is very strong in the first half of the race, but not as strong in the second half of the race. The fact that Q3 took place in the dark may have explained why they didn’t qualify ahead of Red Bull.

As both Brawns are lighter than the Red Bulls they will have to overtake them on track to have any chance of beating them. However as we saw in Brazil Button is willing to have a go. Barrichello will also be fighting to finish 2^nd in the drivers championship.

abu dhabi grand prix f1 news yas island It should be an exciting battle for second place, but Button’s dream of winning the final race of the season is probably unrealistic now, unless something happens to Hamilton.

Another factor to consider in the race is the pit lane tunnel. During free practice and qualifying there was no need to take risks in there. However in the race when drivers are racing for track position in the pit stop phase they will be pushing much harder in that tunnel to gain crucial tenths. If a car hits the wall it could potentially destroy races if drivers are following behind. There is potential for a massive spanner in the works here.

In conclusion it should be an easy victory for Hamilton but the Red Bull versus Brawn GP battle behind should be very close, and we could see some interesting action there.

The midfield action should also be very entertaining as we see a group of drivers all wanting to end the season on a high, and wanting to sell themselves to future employers.

Top 8 prediction:

1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Jenson Button
3. Sebastien Vettel
4. Rubens Barrichello

5. Mark Webber
6. Heikki Kovalainen
7. Robert Kubica
8. Jarno Trulli